Posts Tagged ‘Those’
The draw game – hard to find them isn’t it? Eight of these are key to winning the British or Australian treble chance , but maybe you just want to find two or three for a specialised fixed odds bet, maybe in an Australian, German or Italian league. Typically, on a league weekend in the British football season, there will be 9 scoring football draws on the 49 match coupon. Of these, many will have been predictable using a good football draw predictor. No-score football draws add about draws 4-5 per week.
In the British league season, most teams play near to ‘form’ – that is, at a fairly consistent (and predictable} standard – but Cup matches are more of a lottery when ‘giant killing’ happens fairly frequently. These competitions are best avoided if you are serious about winning the football pools. To start, we only bet when the odds are optimal, and that means only on the league games. Betting on cup matches is for fun only, and expect to lose money over the long term. In fact, we don’t bet when ‘form’ is likely to be compromised – e.g. on New Year’s Day when the players have been celebrating.
Using a solid football draw prediction system, you will be able to keep track of form and eliminate those matches which are certain home wins – there could be typically 22 home wins on a coupon, many of which will have been easy to predict. As to away wins, these are trickier to forecast, and there will be, typically, 13-14 away wins on the coupon..
Supposing we can predict 90% of those home wins – that’s almost twenty matches, plus 50% of the away wins – another 7 matches. So, out of the coupon as a whole, with a reliable forecasting system we can expect to predict 26 matches (homes and aways). That leaves 23 matches, from which we have to find 8 football draws. That has made the challenge a lot easier!
Now, with a good plan or perm, which combines maybe 17 or 18 forecasts – some plans even give a coverage of 24 matches, then you can see that the odds of getting 8 football draws in a line are hugely better. Sure, using a plan means that you trade perfection to achieve greater coverage (after all there are 451 million ways of selecting 8 football draws from 49 matches). You probably will not hit the jackpot, but you will have more frequent wins of lower value, and should be able to move into profit.
So, you can see that an efficient football draw prediction system is essential.
My view is that the first few weeks of the season are when we don’t get a reliable picture of form across a league division, and it takes some weeks for the pattern to emerge. Some experts will look at long term patterns and suggest that some teams are home win experts, some have a good (or a poor) away record. That can be useful in the final analysis, but I don’t factor such things in when looking for a football draw game. So, how far back should we look? Certainly not into last season – I work with less than half a dozen matches history (league games only).
Then, you need to have a consistent way of rating a team’s performance – and that needs to take into account the strength of the opposition. This leaves you with a list of teams and performance ratings.
Now you need to look at the forthcoming matches and compare the teams’ ratings. Adjust for home advantage, and make any other adjustments you feel are appropriate (new player or manager, injury to a key player?). Then, organise the list in order by likely match outcome. At one end of the list will be most probable home wins. At the other end will be the most probable away wins. In the middle will be the juice – where we find the elusive football draw block.
Then, you take the middle chunk of matches and, depending on your budget, decide how many you will cover using your perm or plan. You could reasonably expect to win in those weeks when there are 11-14 football draws in the results.
If we can find 60% of the draws when there are 13 or 14 in the results, then we will have 8 – 9 draws. That’s when a good staking plan comes in, to maximise your chances of getting your football draws in one line.
These are a few, but not all of the elements necessary to become a regular winner.
It’s important to see that this is a percentage approach, and all you are seeking to do is get the odds on your side and find most of those elusive football draws. A few wins a season should put you into profit, and as always, the devil is in the detail!
(c) 2011 Phil Marks
http://www.articlesbase.com/online-gambling-articles/how-to-find-those-elusive-football-draw-games-4960627.html
Ahh football! A noble sporting institution centred on several prominent British values: healthy competition, camaraderie and drinking copious amounts of alcohol. Young and old, rich and poor, and male and female alike, there’s nothing the British love more than watching 22 handsome young men kicking a ball around a field wearing shorts. Equally, who can resist the thrill of seeing their idol score the winning goal? Technically, all Brits (like Brazilians) are football fans; it’s actually a matter of national pride. However, there are always a few guys who have to take their fandom further, you know the type? They don’t just love watching football on the telly, they have a football bedspread, football posters, they eat, sleep and breathe footy. So, what’s a gift giver to do when that football fan’s birthday or Christmas rolls round? In this exciting article we’ll take a look at that majestic creature ‘the footy fan’ and see what Gifts for Him we can come up with which you may not have considered before. They will need to be affordable, creative and they’ll also need to put a smile on his face. The Football Fan There are many truths about the football fan, I would call him an elusive creature or enigmatic but neither are true. Typically, he sees everything in simple terms. You win or lose a football match, after all, (or draw, but that is rare and leads to penalty shoot outs…) Anyway, he’s uncomplicated, direct, friendly and chatty. Gifts for Him need to be bold, simple and make a statement. He loves pizza, beer (if he’s old enough to drink it) and he can tell you more about football than you would ever want or need to know. That means that there’s a lot of room for you to get something wrong, like buy him a porcelain figurine of a team member from that club he hates. There are two major things wrong with that, firstly, you bought a man a porcelain figurine and secondly, never mind. He will have enjoyed smashing it. Getting Gifts For him Research is key. You need to know who his favourite players are, what his favourite club is and what size shirt he is. Does he play football at the weekends? What shoe size is he if he does? Become interested in football, ask questions and make lists. Soon you’ll have the football fan’s details down on paper and that makes getting gifts for him that much easier. With his shirt size you could get him his favourite player’s shirt and with his shoe size you could get him some new top-of-the-range football boots for those weekend games. These are obvious gifts though? The only thing ever stopping you from getting these sorts of things is that you will neglect to look at tags; you needn’t ask him and make him suspicious. Just look inside a shoe or shirt when he’s not around. After research, the key to getting great Gifts for Him is getting things which will make him laugh. You don’t have to get him something tacky though, you can put a smile on his face and still give him something he will use, rather than leave on a shelf to gather dust. One good example of something he can use and laugh about is a pair of Football cufflinks, there are loads of designs out there from tasteful silver football and boot designs, to more quirky colourful ones. He can wear his football cufflinks with any traditional button down shirt making them great for nights out, formal meetings and weddings. So, whenever he’s all dressed up and ready to go out he’ll think of you and football; the two things he probably loves more than anything else in the world! Another present you might not have considered before could be some stocks and shares. What would he do with those you ask? Well, I don’t know but he’d certainly put the certificate on the wall or frame it if he owned a share in his favourite football team? He can’t manage them but he can own a small portion of Manchester United, Arsenal or any team that he supports and what’s better than saying your team, really and truly is your team? Men who love football really appreciate it when you take some time to learn more about their interests and get them something which is both useful and meaningful. A football mug is fine, but what about engraved footy champagne glasses instead? Thinking outside the box and making the gifts for him funny, luxurious or a romantic experience, depending on who the footy fan in your life is, can make his special day that little bit more special!